Just out today is the actual number for GDP growth for the 1st quarter of 2012, showing a slowing of growth to an annual rate of 1.9% from the 4th quarter 2011 of 3.0%, a 36% drop in activity.
The 1st quarter advance estimate was 2.2% GDP growth but with more information now available, we have a second estimate of 1.9%. These are annual growth rates in percent change from the preceding quarter.
A slowing economy reduced prices, especially for commercial real estate, because it reduces demand, but in the long run the lower demand results in lower interest rates which eventually will increase the return on investment and spur growth.
Top employers in New Orleans.
| Company | Type of Business | Employment |
| Ochsner Health System | Health Care | 9,107 |
| St. Tammany Parish Public School Board | Elementary & Secondary Schools | 7,651 |
| Jefferson Parish School Board | Elementary & Secondary Schools | 7,000 |
| Northrop Grumman | Ship Building & Repairing | 5,400 |
| LSU Health Sciences Center New Orleans | Colleges & Universities | 5,000 |
| Tulane University | Colleges & Universities | 4,410 |
| Jefferson Parish Government | Government | 3,671 |
| City of New Orleans | Government | 3,500 |
| East Jefferson Hospital | Health Care | 3,150 |
| United States Postal Service | Government | 2,887 |
| Lockheed Martin Corp/Nasa Michoud | Space Research and Technology | 2,832 |
| Harrah's New Orleans Casino | Casinos | 2,200 |
| Capital One | Commercial Banking | 2,150 |
| Al Copeland Investments | Restaurants & Food Manufacturing | 2,000 |
| Dow Chemical Company | Chemical Manufacturing | 2,000 |
| North Oaks Medical Center | Health Care | 1,835 |
| Touro Infirmary | Health Care | 1,835 |
| Naval Support Activity | Government | 1,800 |
| Jefferson Parish Sheriff's Office | Government | 1,655 |
| West Jefferson Medical Center | Health Care | 1,654 |
| Southeastern Louisiana University | Colleges & Universities | 1,601 |
| Saint Tammany Parish Hospital | General Medical & Surgical Hospitals | 1,519 |
| Boh Bros. Construction Co. | General Contractor | 1,500 |
| Children's Hospital | Health Care | 1,417 |
| Hilton-New Orleans Riverside | Hotels & Motels | 1,400 |
| Whitney Holding Corp. | Commercial Banking | 1,399 |
| Tulane Medical Center | Health Care | 1,343 |
| New Orleans Sewerage and Water Board | Government | 1,300 |
| US Army Corps of Engineers | Government | 1,300 |
| USDA, National Finance Center | Government | 1,300 |
| St. Tammany Parish Hospital | Health Care | 1,266 |
| Universal Sodexho (USA) Inc. | Catering | 1,233 |
| New Orleans Recovery School District | Elementary & Secondary Schools | 1,180 |
| Textron Marine & Land Systems | Manufacturing | 1,165 |
| University of New Orleans | Colleges & Universities | 1,150 |
| Boomtown Casino | Casinos | 1,100 |
| Laitram LLC | Manufacturing | 1,050 |
| Bollinger Gulf Repair | Ship Building & Repairing | 1,000 |
| Entergy Corp. | Electric Power Distribution | 1,000 |
| Loyola University | Colleges & Universities | 1,000 |
| Sanderson Farms | Food manufacturing | 1,000 |
| Shell Exploration & Production | Oil and gas exploration | 1,000 |
| Times-Picayune | Newspaper Publishers | 1,000 |
| Xavier University of Louisiana | Colleges & Universities | 1,000 |
| Source: CityBusiness Book of Lists 2007-08, Info USA Business List, D&B Selectory Business List, Parish Economic Development Websites, & Area Newspapers. | ||
Today, one of the best measurements of the strength of the economy-the Leading Economic Index-showed a decline in April of 0.1 percent, in contrast to March's 0.3 percent increase and also February's 0.7 percent increase. A declining Leading Economic Index has predicted 7 of the last 8 recessions, but this does provide a signal of possible slowdown which could lead to falling commercial real estate prices; however, that could be followed by lower interest rates due to a lower demand to borrow money, since interest rates are nothing more that the intersection of the demand and supply for money.
Today's news release and analysis of the leading indicators is prepared by the Conference Board, which is not a government agency, but a 501 (c)(3) non-profit association of business members. The index is based on a scale where the year 2004 is 100. Today's number is 95.5.
The Leading Economic Index is composed of the following individual indicators:
To confirm a change in the direction of the economy, we also look at the Coincident Economic Index.
There are four economic statistics comprising the Coincident Economic Index:
In summary, watch the next few months of data and should we see further weakness, prepare for lower commercial real estate prices, a slowing economy around the time of the presidential elections causing havoc for incumbents, but also lower interest rates.
Source: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1
